Impact Since Dec August 2019
Visual winner: Blended Wave
Blended impact score: 40.67
Stealth QE impact score: 37.94
Blended corr: 0.502
QE corr: 0.404
Risk-Love corr: -0.462
Blended R²: 0.252
QE R²: 0.163
Risk-Love R²: 0.214
BTC Peak Driver
Historical winner: Blended Wave
Blended avg peak score: 54.91
QE avg peak score: 35.15
Blended peak wins: 3
QE peak wins: 1
Peaks detected: 4
Current peak template:
Blended: No (2/5)
QE: Partial (1/2)
Current peak leader: Blended Wave
BTC Bottom Driver
Historical winner: Blended Wave
Blended avg bottom score: 54.78
QE avg bottom score: 28.95
Blended bottom wins: 2
QE bottom wins: 3
Bottoms detected: 5
Current bottom template:
Blended: Yes (3/3)
QE: Yes (2/2)
Current bottom leader: Blended Wave
Current Conditions
Latest 12m rolling corr:
Blended: 0.885
QE: 0.538
Risk-Love: 0.596
Primary peak setup leader: Blended Wave
Primary bottom setup leader: Blended Wave
Net impact winner: Blended Wave
Debt-Liquidity Forward Roadmap
Required liquidity multiple: 2.70x debt
Latest required stock: $124.75T
Latest liquidity gap: $115.88T
Latest Treasury QE need: $2.115T/mo
Rollover projection uses current/future Treasury maturities, recent Bills/Notes/Bonds issuance mix, WALCL and GFDEBTN from FRED, and forecast interest outlay where available.
Chart Summary / Current Signal Diagnostics
Impact winner Blended Wave Risk-Love impact 37.28
Peak driver Blended Wave Current peak leader Blended Wave
Bottom driver Blended Wave Current bottom leader Blended Wave
Debt-liquidity latest gap $115.88T Backdrop key Green = macro relief / risk-off easing, amber = speculative / goldilocks, red = macro risk-on pressure
BTC model signals Buy windows: 18 | Sell windows: 15 (legend disabled by default)
Self-check: Buy n=7, hit 71.4%, avg -4.7%, feedback +3.0 score / -2.3 threshold | Sell n=8, hit 75.0%, avg 21.9%, feedback +5.8 score / -4.3 threshold
Historical BTC Peak Diagnostics
Peak (plotted) QE Score QE Lead (m) Blended Score Blended Lead (m) Winner
2018-02-01 20.00 4 49.79 4 Blended Wave
2019-08-01 0.00 7 40.00 3 Blended Wave
2021-05-01 73.81 1 94.02 2 Blended Wave
2025-09-01 46.80 11 35.83 11 Stealth QE Wave
Historical BTC Bottom Diagnostics
Bottom (plotted) QE Score QE Lead (m) Blended Score Blended Lead (m) Winner
2019-03-01 15.00 7 80.19 4 Blended Wave
2020-05-01 24.62 0 20.00 0 Stealth QE Wave
2023-02-01 10.00 6 81.84 3 Blended Wave
2023-10-01 65.99 5 65.53 11 Stealth QE Wave
2024-10-01 29.15 8 26.34 9 Stealth QE Wave
Processing & Model Load Approximate run diagnostics for this page render
Estimated Computes
74,214
Array passes, scoring, backtest and chart preparation estimate
Data Points Considered
3,300
Numeric observations across liquidity, BTC, macro and model series
Code Footprint
127.54 KB
3,094 script lines
Code + Data Footprint
153.32 KB
Script size plus approximate numeric payload
Series / Model Component Numeric Points
Global liquidity stock 208
Liquidity impulse 196
MOVE Index 231
Primary Liquidity Wave 231
YCC Wave 231
Stealth QE Wave 231
China Credit Impulse 231
Risk-Love Composite 97
Debt-Liquidity Wave 219
Macro / Financial Conditions 230
SOX 5M Lead vs ISM Business Cycle 226
Blended Wave 196
BTC 12M Change 128
SP500 12M Change 142
NASDAQ 12M Change 48
Russell 2000 12M Change 49
Gold 12M Change Inverted 150
BTC Model Buy Scores 128
BTC Model Sell Scores 128